Every now and then scientology accidentally exposes the truth about their actual size in their own words.
Super Power was released in November 2013.
This is after it had been promoted for 30 years.
There was an enormous backlog of people who had been regged for the service over that time that were all now able to partake in the miracle.
And it is a service that EVERY scientologist can do no matter where they are on the Bridge.
It is something everyone is EXPECTED to do.
And it can ONLY be done in one place. Flag.
So the count of how many people complete it is a pretty good indicator of how many scientologists there really are on this planet they are clearing.
Let’s do some simple math:
Assume (generously) that for every person that has completed Super Power in the past 26 months there are 3 others who cannot afford to go to Flag and couldn’t scrape the money together in 2 years (there are plenty of people inside the bubble who would sneer at these people as not being “real scientologists” as after all — scientology makes the able more able and they don’t fit the description).
And for each person who has completed, add 2 others who are ineligible to grace the marble halls of Flag because they are in ethics trouble, have a relative or friend who has been declared, are ill or otherwise not qualified.
This would mean for every person who has completed Super Power there are 5 others who have not. So 17% of public scientologists have gotten through.
That is a pretty low percentage — when there has been SO MUCH HEAT on this for more than 2 years, but it is generous to lowball the percentage for the purpose of this exercise.
And of course, staff members outside of Flag don’t get to do it (even though, according to Hubbard, they are who it was designed for). So, you can add another 5000 staff and SO members around the world.
That math then shows the total number of scientologists in the world to be:
2,500 x 6 plus 5,000 = 20,000.
This is probably pretty accurate.
But then let’s look at it another way.
26 months for 2500 completions is less than 100 per month. And this is for a service that EVERYONE is expected to do.
And another way, if they have only managed after 2 years to corral 17% of the public onto a service they are ALL supposed to do and one that has been relentlessly pushed, the control over the sheeple is virtually non-existent. If on the other hand they have better control and more than 17% have actually complied, then the total number of scientologists in the world is less than 20,000.
This IS the reality of scientology today.
Before I left, I was told by the CO CLO AF that there were about 2000 members in South Africa and about 7000 names in CF. There are six orgs in South Africa and two in Zimbabwe.
I know that the membership locally has shrunk since then, but even on that old stat – which shocked me when I heard it – 2000 members for 6 orgs (not counting Zim) = an average of 333 members per org. Well, that’s not true for Joburg North, Durban, Cape Town or PE. I don’t think Zimbabwe has anything more than a trickle of members. I was in Harare recently and saw not a single sign of any scientology anywhere.
I always thought the US orgs had a fortune of members – which I now discover is no better than the local scene – and possibly even worse.
Whichever way you cut it, the figure of 12 million (was it a celeb who mentioned that figure? Was that what the celeb was told?) is impossible. A figure of 1 million is equally impossible and makes the 12 million lie … a 12X whopper. Even a 100 000 membership worldwide seems highly unlikely and means the 12 million figure is a 120X whopper.
Whoppers. Straight up and vertical.
(“Whopper” above – refers to gross untruth, not burgers.)
Apart from the fact that the membership is exaggerated – when members are asked to pull together to donate for ideal orgs and IAS, what would be the response if they were actually asked:
“We need 160 ideal orgs at about $10 or $15 million apiece – now all 50 thousand of you need to come up with about 2 billion $. After that – we need a SuMP and a Hall. Start!”.
I think even the whales would swim away. Hence the lie on the membership is more than innocuous exaggeration.
Thanks for the great article, Mike. Its an important topic.
There’s no way Joburg North has 333 members. They’re lucky if 10 people pitch up on course and one person gets auditing at a time. They’re smaller than a mission.
I believe I can safely say that it’s the same for all the others. I doubt that even Joburg org has that many members. It’s course room has a handful of people in it at any one time.
There may be members not on services but who attend the events but that’s it. They’re not on services because they can’t afford to be, so they stay on the edges, that is, they hang around.
It isn’t just the Scientology Organization that has lost numbers. Used to be when someone left the Church they would regroup out here with some Freezone terminal or Independent terminal.
Not any more, when they leave the Scientology Organization, they vanish. They really keep on walking and don’t look back.
The groups involved with Scientology or Dianetics, that are expanding, the A.O. in Israel, The Underground Scientology Movement in the U.S., The Nation of Islam and the Russians moving on Ron’s Org, they recruit their own members. They have totally disconnected from the Scientology Organization’s current scene. And the people that leave. They are not burdened with OSA plants and the attitudes and engrams of the former scene. There is a successful group in L.A. but also they bring their own people in. People that have never been in David Miscavige’s club. The successful field practices, have also always “been there’, generating their own clients.
When people leave the Scientology Organization these days, they are done. And they are very angry, dismayed and disappointed. The last thing they want, is another “Scientology experience”. They do not even look for another way, and if they do, they are usually set up for a loss with someone in worse condition than them.
I have always wondered how much collateral damage is involved with getting one person “up the bridge”? How many lives and how much sacrifice.
For every OTVll comp right now, how many years of Sea org labor did it take to make that happen? What is the return from the OTVll’s? What we read in the OT committee minutes? 1,345.00 regged this week. 23 Way To Happiness Books passed out? Add that to the losses Miscavige has put upon the Organization through out P.R. and loss of good will. Is it really fair for 4,500 staff in the Sea Org to be off the bridge full time for 20 years to make one OTVll? Who just gets their certs cancelled at GAOT events? What is the cost of an OT? Who may not be by the time Miscavige figures out his next ploy for attention.
Nation of Islam is doing it for themselves for the cost of a Dianetics book.
I don’t mean to get all biblical, but the meek, the spiritual, the street people, the honest, the people that serve, are inheriting any lasting or redeeming value with Scientology and Dianetics. And these are the kind of people Miscavige and other sociopaths prey on, the people with empathy.
But when a sponge gets full, it falls to the bottom of the sink. And rests on top of the dirty dishes.
The thing about Marty, Mike, and Karen, you know, if they had united they could have moved the entire population of Scientology out from under Miscavige. They just were not purposed for “power” or “money” or “status” as Miscavige charges. The opposite. They did not have hidden agendas. They wanted people to KNOW.
And here is Miscavige, “You don’t know! You have been in Scientology 45 years and you don’t know. Only with my Golden Age of Tech, which totally undermines L. Ron Hubbard,( what fkn age was he in, the Iron age)? Can you KNOW.”
Well, more people than ever know. He has a restraining order against him Texas for domestic terrorism. People know. Whoever is reading this, you know.
So, I just want to say Thank You to the people that kept it real in this theater and shared and gave us what we wanted, to KNOW. If it was the truth, I am grateful. And I know many readers here are also. We can’t possibly live a life and view from every angle. We need honest help, and a hand up, to understand.
Those people who help us, should be helped too. So please think of Mike and the time he has spent helping to clear the air and bring down chaos and confusion, think of Karen and help out by visiting her youtube pages and voting, and for the love of God people, Marty wrote one of the best books I have read in my life called Texas Tropics. It is truly a great read. And for all of his life, time, sanity and security he risked, to help people to know, it is only fair to pick up that book and leave a review for him.
We are not, and have never been, Freeloaders. We are the people that keep the porch light on.
Oracle, great comment.
Bravo! Oracle
Thank you very much for your comment. I think you are right. Here in France even the critic’s movement is shrinking, because Scientology has gone with the wind and people have other fish to fry. But people who went down the rabbit hole for answers will be for ever indebted to Mike, Karen, Marty and also all of those who have written their experiences, like Jefferson Hawkings, Marc Headly, Amie Scobby, Jennna Miscavige, Tony Ortega, John Sweeny, etc. As Hubbard said, you cannot stop the truth even with 17 inch armour.
…so why are we accepting the information on the number of completions as “correct”. Anyone collected up all the Flag Mags, counted the comps and compared to prior boasts? Or are we just gulping down the Kool-Aide as directed?
I wonder how many active Scientologists there were just before the Great Exodus began around 1982(?) when the monthly price increases started. That would be an interesting comparison. I’m not sure but maybe the numbers eventually rebounded until the attack on the missions began. It’s history now but educated guesses might be worthwhile.
One more thing and then end of off-topic interruption. If I include all those on or intending to “move up the bridge”, then at one time there might have been hundreds of thousands. Also, I don’t have the computer skills to do it, but I would like to see a chronological history book type of list of significant events in scio history. I’m fuzzy about what happened and when.
Up to 1980 my org was full full full… People were young, not sibling of scientologists, newly interested. Every day they were new faces.
Whatever we may think of the validity of scientology prior to Miscavige the stat were up ! I think scientology died when it became actionnable to reveal an overt in session. That was the end of scientology. It just took more than thirty years that the agony went to the terminal step.
For scientology to survive the church should reform. And the first step would be to dismis Miscavige.
Jews used to say say “next year in Jerusalem” scientologists should say “next year without Miscavige”.
In the future when truth would have won “COB” will stay in the books as the suppressive who destroyed scientology. Most accurate definition of David Miscavige.
There are many stories about thriving orgs and missions. Scn was always expensive relative to current wages. For every one person on lines there could have been 5 or even 10 more working to pay for their next action. Nationwide the numbers would be significant.
About this time in 2008 the Sand Castle parking lots was full
including 7 or 8 new Harley Davidsons in the lower lot.
Now these areas are empty save for a few cars.
What about the hype about renting all motels in a 50 mile radius
of Flag for the Grand Opening of the Super Power Building
ERRR well,just Hype.
This mirrors numbers in the Bubble.
Mike, you may not be, according to David Miscavige and Tom Cruise a Big Being, but you sure are the Biggest Pain in the Ass they have ever had! Keep on trucking old friend!
I thought there was more than 2500 Scientologist just in flag and you know they count the staff members that completed
20 000! Most people are still saying 40 000. I’ve been saying 25 000 but I can’t remember where I got that figure from. I know it was based on some facts and something reliable.
So say I was right with 25 000 which I’ve been running with for about a year. This could mean that another 5000 have left! Hallelujah!
Good stuff, Mike. What would also be of interest is to get some assessment of general operating expenses for Flag, Freewinds, AOLA, ASHO, CC. I think you’ll find that what they are bringing in isn’t even close to a break-even point–if the 5k number mentioned in one of the earlier comments is relevant elsewhere.
In all likelihood, they are burning through a lot of money each year, and if they stay on their current course, will have to start shutting down orgs throughout the world. I would guess that at some point they will start telling people that if they want to take courses, they’ll have to come to an advanced org for services.
If they do have a few billion, there not running out of money . I always thought it was around 20,000. Look at the biggest events they ever had. Where every scientologists was ordered to be there.i lift in 86. Under 5,000 the most I ever saw. Has there ever been 10,000 at an event.. Say 10,000 in l.a. And 10,000 in Europe. I doubt it.
Two things:
1. I thought when Superpower was released it was to be given to all the staff first and then public.
2. I disagree with the estimated numbers. If 1 in 10 Scientologists can afford to go to Flag and do Superpower I would be surprised. I bet it’s more like 1 in 20 and even that’s probably a conservative number.
Corporate Scientology isnt about people doing Scientology, it’s about promoting that people are doing it, or that it is available. This is used as PR to keep people captive and get more donations for the IAS. There’s probably no real push to get people through it. Everything has a twist to it. Nothing is just a straight pure intention.
If you could look in Miscaviges mind you would probably see that regarding Superpower, he wants to promote it for his own glory and he wants to use it to make others wrong and to further strengthen his control over others. Something like that. Do you think he wants people getting the gains that Superpower claims?
Considering that, I feel that Superpower is probably looked at similar to the Ls or the “Flag only” rundowns to the average public. Something that they should do, that they would like to do, but probably wont unless they can afford it which most cant.
When did the “Basics” come out? 2006? The courses that every Scientologist was supposed to do. They were out for quite a few years before I left in @2010 and most of the “Scientologists” at my org had not completed them. And for that you only had to come in to the org a few nights a week after work, and the price was nothing compared to going to Superpower I assume.
Another way to estimate the number is to look by org. For example, the Denver org has 110 hard core members and maybe up to 150 with staff and people that may still believe. If you do this across the board then the number is less that 20,000. Also, I was always curious to know for the most part why do people at Flag all know each other?
How long can 20 thousand clams hide from 5 thousand reges? Think fast, there is a reg coming around the mountain and going for you or your children right now.
Watch for the next major clam announcement to be a reversed engineered layoff of staff and Sea bOrg and some selling off of the real estate portfolio. Twenty thousand clams can’t support the current bloated CO$. They can’t unless the entire clampire are all Bob Duggans. I don’t care how many ‘prosperity’ seminars the clams throw, there is only one Bob Duggan and he can’t support all of the clampire.
Mike, did you have access to numbers before you left?
Or is that something only COB keeps VERY close to the chest….
I can settle this right now!
Super Power gives anyone on the Bridge to Defy Gravity,
Captain Obvious say’s they have Floated away before being counted .
Those counted had big breakfasts and were grounded enough to go see the Reg.
Exception is Cornerstone Members who are still paying off credit card debt
The “first in line” that are no shows.
You know, I’m so glad that Scientology doesn’t take itself seriously, anymore! That’s a nice change. I mean, when Brittany signed off with ‘ML,’ I thought it was wonderful! ‘ML’ does stand for Manic Laughter, doesn’t it?
In about 2002 when I was the Treasury Sec for the FSO we did a computer print out of the names of everyone who did a paid service at Flag over the prior 3 years. There were only 5,000 names. Note that Flag delivers more value of Scientology service and makes more money than all the rest of Scientology combined.
Even for over a decade ago, Mat, those were sobering statistics.
Thank you, Mat (and Mike), for always posting truth.
ML, 1.1
Ehh, I don’t know about that math.
Here in Atlanta, in a field of 150ish, only 10 or so people have done it.
Then again, that’s just my field, who embody the LRH adage of “namby pamby delitants” or whatever he said.
Even then, 2500 x 15 only equals 37500. Still not very impressive.
Once again, that’s just things here; your org mileage may vary.
So why the huge push to join staff?
I know the turnover is horrendous but with the numbers so dismally low and the buildings so empty the staff members must just be chasing their tails with busy work. Well to be honest, that’s a lot of what staff has always been but at least there were public around us making us feel useful back then.
If each staff member has only 3 public to service, all cf should be in pt, no one should be exhausted. Too bad they are being forced to do counterproductive actions rather than the things that make sense.
My mind can’t help but go bad places when approximately 25% of the people still in are staff members. The UTRs probably outnumber the die hards on the outside. I would like te celebrate that the fall is near but I worry about my friend Heber and others like him when the numbers tell this story.
Does anyone know the published pricing for super power? Is it charged as a total package, per rundown, per hour? Is it one of those things you get an estimate for and then when you get there find out is going to cost at least twice as much? The price is always a big obstacle for people. If it’s sold in sections, then there could be many who started and can’t get any further.
$5,000 published price but you can do the rundown for $2,500.
Thanks Pete2. That price surprises me. I figured it would be much higher. I think 12 1/2 hours of auditing at flag is more than that, so I would think there is more to it than $5000.
Yes, the rate for 12 1/2 hours is more expensive, but my friend doing the run around the pole rundown told me $2500.
Now, let’s say that on average every scientologist has met 1000 other scientologists. If you say 20,000 scientologists have met (on average) 1000 scientologists, that comes out to: 20,000 X 1000 = 20,000,000. That would mean that there are 20 million scientologists in the world.
Scientology is contagious? Yikes!
LOL
Except that each scientologist is meeting the same thousand scientologists, so that brings us back to 20,000
For some reason I have always thought the 40,000 figure was high. They never seen to be able to get more than a few thousand together even for the largest events.
It seems like Mike posts proof every day that proves this……
the minutes from meetings – those numbers are always embarrassing and abysmal;
the photoshopped pictures;
the pathetic superpower numbers;
the tiny numbers of new Clears
Etc
Etc
Miscavige must have staff working on the whales and celebs full time to make sure they stay
I’m just thankful that the dissemination to Oprah did not work. I don’t think TC, JT and Krusty tried to convert Oprah, but I do think there was a concerted effort to get her to see how ‘happy’ and at peace they were.
Look at what Oprah did for sales of The Secret…. Every housewife in America could have been reading (or trying to) Dianetics. (Runs along the same lines….the power of positive thinking…… You attract success….you ‘bring in’ negativity.)
But alas, that did not work and now Miscavige is left to kiss the a$$ of Bob Duggan. It’s a distasteful job, so he sends Cardone to do it.
Your math only works if the 20,000 sciens have met 1000 different and discreet sciens, a rather improbable scenario.
Hi Mike,
You probably have a good reason to use the number 5000 for staff WW. How do you arrive at this number?
Phoenix Ideal Org has fewer than 10 staff up from 3, six years ago. Two of these are local senior citizens from the 1960’s.. It seems the rest are SO, transferred here from out of state (I recognized at least one from Florida).
PAC base had 2000 SO staff on site in the 80’s. When I visited last Summer, L Ron Hubbard Way was empty and I saw no more than Div 6 staff in LA Org as I toured there.
I have no feel for the presence of Scientology overseas, but guesstimate American Scientology census at no more than a generous 7,500 including SO.
Do you think my estimate is very inaccurate?
~Chris Thompson
I think six years ago Phoenix had about 10-15 staff. Maybe they had three had core, full time staff that were there from open to close? Even with that I would say they had the ED, Snr CS, Course Sup, Snr (only)Auditor, and one or two more. Dont forget internet celebrity Dedee Scott, although I was never sure what her post was. I think when I left she was the Tone 40 I/C https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bjzyZlhDok
Maybe some people were at Flag for training? The CS is at Flag more than he is at the org. Every time Miscavige changes the definition of FN or finds a semicolon some SP put in the wrong place they have to retrain.
I meant that last Summer I saw no more than 6, div 6 staff members and 2 security staff on bicycles.
Let me fix it for you:
20K scilons have talked to 1000 wogs = 20 million anti-scilons.
Mike,
When they say Super Power completion- do you believe they mean any of the processes offered in SP – or all of them?
I don’t know if it is sold as a complete package of all of them together or if they can/do break-up the individual SP processes.
Just curious. Ty.
BB
It is sold as a package. A SP comp has done all the rundowns, they aren’t counting individual rundown comps.
Dave,
Bridge update:
Sounds constipated. What’s up with Command Intention?
You are cornered: higher percentage or lower membership?
Are you looking at your incarceration and exile options at his point?
To play devils advocate and since I still have connections to many cherch members I would say based on the price of super power and scheduling problems only 2 out of 20 have done the rundowns. That’s 10% and I think that’s generous. It’s probably less. That’s still only 25,000 non-staff. So add staff and that’s 30,000. My guesstimate is there are only between 30 and 40k total active SCNrs. That’s still nothing for the fastest growing religion in the world.
active SCNrs: actively leaving
And, BK, many are still UTR because they have family still in. They need to be counted too as I think there are quite a few of them.
Yes, I did not figure in utr members. There is no organization I know that has so many.
Our local org is a poor struggling place (most are) so numbers are similar, in fact I’ve only heard of one out of approx 20 who has done it.
Don’t they count each of the actions within Super Power? For example, I know someone that did two things, so the number is even less. Also, I know many teenagers have done this too, so if you assume 1.5 kids per Scientology family the number is reduced again.
Shame on you Mike Rinder. Scientology has expanded more in the last five years than the Roman Catholic Church since the time of The Inquisition.
Wrong my dear .. the Catholic Church gets members by birth of a baby .. the church of scientology gets no babies per order .. it is dev-t to have babies as I have heard .. in scientologese is all dev-t if you are not clear and OT in 20 seconds .. if it needs longer you are PTS or SP .. and you are not qualified ..
But see one tiny thing .. there are millions of scientologist around .. take all the hours of OT III and above together .. a BT is Clear after you told him from where he came .. nice, isn’t it nice .. he will never find out that Hawaii did not exist at the time of his implant, but the church made a new Clear and a new member ..
Nobody will see how Miscavige counts his members .. have you ever thought about this logic .. it seems the logic of Miscavige .. next is, Planet Earth is cleared .. there are only 7 bio people who run around with bodies .. which are all PTS or SP ..
Do not really know why LRH wrote all his works .. his wish was to release BTs and this is a fast work .. so he has millions of members .. without doubt ..
Laughter!
Math! It’s not just for Wogs anymore!
Laughter!
Very informative, Mike. Thank you.
What will be telling is the lack of the Sooper Power stats from this point forward. Unless of course they release the Golden Age of Sooper Power II. The “finder of lost” and “squirreled tech” will cognite that they were supposed to run around counter-clockwise. The wheels on the bus go round and round…..
Nothing else to add as you said it all; plain and clear these are the facts of the bubble mr miscavige/black heart leads. Delusion indeed.
Thank you Mike
Interesting that you’d run this article today. Yesterday, Tony Ortega posted a comment on his blog responding to another comment, suggesting that there are 40,000 Scientology members globally. That was based on the 2007 American Religious Identification Survey, which listed 25,000 Scientologists in the US; a reasonable estimate of 15,000 non-US members was added to get the global total. Importantly, the margin for error of the survey was 50,000, so that 25,000 number could have been zero to 75,000 in reality.
I was disappointed that Tony’s tone was fairly dismissive of those who believe the number to be lower. While I haven’t gone back to it recently, I did enough work a couple years ago on building a “bottom up” estimate (versus the “top down” method of the survey) to believe that a global total of 20,000 to 25,000 is far more accurate. Recent defections in the 2-3 years since I did that work would tend to push the number towards the lower end of that range. My estimates also concur with the 5,000 global staff estimate including Sea Org.
My work managing investments at Global Capitalism HQ often involves making decisions on insufficient data. Often, all we have to work with are “back-of-the-envelope” models because more accurate data simply doesn’t exist, or the people who have the data don’t want us to have it — they want us to buy their company’s stock and make the price go up, so they suppress any data that shows them in an unfavorable light. So we have the challenge of making big decisions very quickly with incomplete information.
If we are able to come up with a number that cross-checks close enough from multiple sources using different analytical methods that don’t depend on the same assumptions, then we feel that the model is reasonably accurate (at the very least, we feel our model is no worse than the models our competitors are using). In coming up with my 20,000 to 25,000 member estimate, I used a variety of different models including looking at UK and Australia Census numbers, looking at the number of attendees at various Ideal Org openings such as the embarrassing Portland event and matching that back to the portion of the US population in urban areas with a Scientology org, looking at web site hits for Scientology.org versus other sites with similar rankings where I knew the number of unique visitors each month, etc. All those estimates, each with its own methodology and independent assumption, came out around 20,000 to 25,000. I was actually fairly surprised that multiple modeling techniques all converged around this number. I didn’t get any scenario to come out either significantly higher or significantly lower.
So Mike, this method for estimating numbers dovetails nicely with other work I did, and gives me continued confidence that the 40,000 to 50,000 membership number we often see is significantly too high and that the 20,000 to 25,000 number is much more accurate.
One interesting cross-check that someone with the needed information might do is to count the 2,500 Super Power completions against the number of people who were singled out in various Scientology publications as having donated to the building. In other words, how much of the completion list is people who paid in years ago to get a preferred place in line so they wouldn’t have to wait years in front of the (nonexistent) tidal wave of straight up and vertical demand for this course? If there were 1,500 named donors and there were 2,500 completions, then that means that the response from people who weren’t suckered into donating for the building is pretty small. That, in turn, means that people are either financially tapped out or are avoiding going to Flag so they won’t give up all their money. Any thoughts here from the community on the size of the donor list or on financial hardship among “rank and file” (i.e., non-whale) members would be welcome.
For those interested, my comment on Tony’s estimate of the numbers is here: https://disqus.com/home/discussion/theundergrondbunker/l_ron_hubbard8217s_magic_chalk_and_other_scientology_miracles_at_the_821707_birthday_event/#comment-2486447387
John P,
Allowing for a reasonable margin of error, cross checked by independent surveys and anecdotal data supplied by several formerly high-level executives (Mike Rinder, Jefferson Hawkins and others who had global information access) it would appear that your membership estimates from 2 years ago were right on.
There is no credible source of contrary information.
Announcements from the church are meaningless and even then President of COS Heber Jentzsch had to admit that the inflated number of “8 million Scientologists” was fabricated by including every single person on earth who had ever purchased a book about Scientology since the beginning of time, instead of those who were (or had ever been) actively engaged in church activities.
Whatever the actual membership number, it is clear from an eyeball test alone that Scientology churches around the world are operating well below capacity. Most orgs look utterly bereft of activity except for those people who must be present to keep up the appearance of being open, while the number of staff DELIVERING services greatly exceeds the number of paying public RECEIVING services.
That is not a model that can sustain itself, unless of course the “solution” is to pretend to still offer church services as a bow to the IRS, while primarily engaging in no-exchange fund raising for the purpose of building a legal war chest and a real estate portfolio.
Like most complex frauds, there does not appear to be an actual end game…the fraud of Scientology will stop…when it is stopped by outside authorities. It will not cease via internal reform because there is no viable service model to which a “return” would lead to success.
Right. There you go. These figures probably include cf files of people who bought DMSMH in 1985, thought it wad a bunch of crap, and tossed it in the trash. I remember our cf was full of these.
20K or 50K, Doesn’t really make much difference. They are dying off faster than they are getting new ones, and even more so the numbers that are waking up and leaving means that it is just a matter of time before the attrition causes a muffled woosh as the last yellow tent flutters to the ground, WTH booklets strewn about covers smeared with dirt, soon to be reclaimed by worms.
Dear John P,
Scientology keeps statistics very accurately of each of their “Central Files.”
There can be inactive CF folders, but the people would be counted by Scientology as members still, so long as they have not “deadfiled” that CF folder.
A person who is alive, and has a CF folder in an org, is a member, to them.
Having purchased a book, qualifies one to be put in a CF folder (they efficiently put one copy of the book purchase invoice into the CF Folder for that person, thus starting the CF folder for that customer/Scientologist).
The CF files room has cabinets, they today use those rolling sliding wall cabinets for the most part, and they have folders for their customers/followers.
The categorization the the CF folders is subdivided, and the “Bookbuyers” (only bought a book) category comes out usually to be the largest percentage of the whole CF files that an org has.
The higher echeolon Scientology Sea Org orgs, the continental Advanced Orgs and the AO/SH orgs combined, and the Flag Org, and the Freewinds Org, all have central files also, for the followers who make it up to the continental or to Flag or to the Freewinds for services at those orgs.
A breakdown of the actual membership of Scientology, if factually done with the paper trail that Scientology themselves use, are their CF files, and those files contain ALL of the invoices ALL neatly dated with the date of the actual payment made for the service listed on that invoice!
The CF folders OUGHT to be publicized, and utilized to do the ACTUAL count of Scientologists worldwide, as the basis for the actual following.
CF Folders will get retired when a person gets declared Suppressive Person, their CF folder will be “deadfiled” and taken out of the CF filing room and kept separately, they still keep the records of that SP’s participation, but it’s just kept in the massively growing “DEADFILES.”
The two paper trail ACTUAL phyiscal sources for the actual size of Scientology would factually be their CF file rooms in all of their orgs, and surveyed in detail by outsiders who knew what they were looking at, and knew the filing system, and also knew of a few of the other filing systems that Scientology upkeeps, and by process of eliminating the SPs and the deceased members, and the really really long quitters who haven’t answered ANY of Scientology’s horribly superficial letters that Scientology writes to members whose names are in CF folders in their orgs, the actual membership could better be stated.
There is a paper trail, and no one is allowed to access it.
So other methiods, the mailing list of the IAS membership that is kept at the Freewinds, in the IAS on the ship’s computer, is the gold standard actual “membership” list.
That list is very difficult to get your hands on, and even I when I was the computer guy at ASI wasn’t allowed to get a copy of the IAS ship’s membership active list.
The mailing list used by the LA Dissem major installation, forget it’s name at the moment, their mailing list, and the “International Central Files” unit also in LA, think they as a small Sea Org subgroup upkeep the master mailing list that SCientology does it’s broad movement wide mailings to, and which people who’ve been SPs for years still get mailings from, that is due the errors in upkeep that the “Int Central Files” unit in LA’s fault.
But were the FBI to ask me to get actual BEST paper trail evidence, I’d use the CF Files, and look at the latest invoices in those files.
Most orgs are good enough to file the invoices of the services and books they’ve most recently sold and put a copy of the invoices in their members’ CF folders, and CF folders with recent invoices means active recent membership activity, and would be the BEST active membership list of active Scientologists in official Scientology.
Chuck Beatty
OEC/FEBC Course Sup, Flag, 1977-1981,82,83
412-260-1170 Pittsburgh, USA
Chuck,
I do not normally quote statistics without attribution as it leads to errors, but there was a very senior ex-SO member on ESMB who did have personal access to the global IAS membership rolls who said that at no time in the history of Scientology did membership in the IAS (or the older HASI) exceed 100,000.
Membership peaked (as did most Scientology stats) in the early 90’s and has been in long term decline ever since.
Mailing lists could of course be larger, but those list are not members, they are mostly prospects…most of whom never get involved with the church after their initial encounter.
True that
Maybe you should offer your services to the FBI.
Some anecdotal evidence from here in South Africa, for what it’s worth. Joburg North – our ‘next in line’ Ideal Org is nowadays open only over weekends and ONE evening a week (no daytime). This is not a mission, its a friggin’ org dammit!
I go to a local gym where many scientologists over the years have frequented. It is right alongside Joburg Org in the heart of where most of its public reside. It is a massive gym with tens of thousands of members. There is a significant number of UTRs and still-ins as members – I know because I’ve had many difficult conversations with both groups over the years. In the last two months, ALL the still-ins have mysteriously disappeared. I have no doubt they’ve been ordered to because ‘things’ have been reported. This is simply a shrinking, withdrawing-from-life group, whatever way you look at them.
Furthermore, I live in what was once regarded as the biggest concentration of scientologists in Joburg, so much so that before its current Kensington location, my area was identified as the most suitable site for the future Ideal Org.Today, every single scientologist (bar one!) is an ex. There is actually only a single scientologist left in this area, and in reality soon to be none.
I know two people who paid for Super Power, and have left the Cherch and never did it. God only knows how they tabulate these twisted stats.
I prefer to take the +/- and arrive at -25000, rather than zero. Then I prefer to state the obvious: the -25000 represents the number of SP’s and critics.
Of course, this theory was concocted using scientology math, so may not be as reliable as both Mike and John’s awesome calculations. 😉
I think even 20k is too high. I analysed the “big list” on wwp – combining the decrease rate derived from these data and the 30-40k estimates for years around 2005-2008, I end up with 3 – 5k members recently. Let’s be generous and call it 10k in 2015.
I agree with your assessment.
less than 10k true believers
Scientology can get one or the other: course completions or donations. Even allowing for the scientology definition of “affordable”, which my best guess is “all that you earn plus all that you can borrow”, scientology prefers donations because they do not require services to be delivered, which reduces staffing needs to deliver services. Even their practice of collecting for services several courses in advance of where the person is on the bridge is something that church members should resist.
From the description of auditing, it’s a one-to-one student-to-teacher ration which is probably why they came up with “solo auditing” to reduce the staff requirements. Even if everyone who is qualified for the Super Powers Rundown signed up for it, there isn’t enough staff to administer it.
As I have posted before, of all the church’s problems (which are many), the lack of Scientologists is probably the most critical. Having a lot of Scnists, like millions, would solve so many problems faced by the church. But from what I can tell, the focus started to drift some time in the early 90s. By 1996 with the release of GAT all of their focus was on existing Scientologists, not the creation of new ones.
Having spent years working in Div 6 I know the amount of time and effort it takes to move someone from a basic service onto the Bridge. Its a lot of two-comm, hand-holding, handling bad PR, and really caring about the person. It doesn’t come from a video (FART), or a single book. It takes time, weeks or even months. You really have to roll up your sleeves, engage and work at it. I doubt David Miscavige would even know how to do this. This is a guy who sought to “standardize” Div 6es with the introduction of FART. Clearly he does not know the area.
If you cut or under fund the flow of new people into an org there are less and less people that could potentially become Scnists. Rather simple, really.
And with the advent of the Ideal Org program, which is based on a falsehood and Wrong Why, the church has become almost completely internalized. Nowadays, such a small percentage of their efforts are directed outwards towards the general public, which are probably quite hostile on the subject. They seem to think that if they just extract enough money from their existing field, buy their building, that magically the public will recognize the wonders of Scn and get on the Bridge. Ain’t gonna happen (as evidenced by the Ideal Orgs that DO exist).
With this in mind, the numbers quoted in this article for Super Power completions will only go DOWN. They’ve run out of qualified customers (being a Scnist is a pre-req). And in two years time hardly anyone will even talk about Super Power. The quarters will have been re-purposed, the staff re-assigned, and parishioners attention focused on the “next big thing”.
I remember the big push on KTL and LOC back in the late 90s when I was on staff at FSO. EVERYONE had to do it. All staff were being pushed through it as well. I went through the grueling M9 of the grammar book,…etc. However, most of my wins happened during the opening clay table auditing.
There were separate course rooms for KTL/LOC students, specialized sups….even a KTL/LOC ethics officer.
Even the Freewinds had a KTL/LOC courseroom at that time.
All that is gone now as far as I know. I’ve heard nothing about KTL/LOC in years. I doubt they even offer it as a service anymore, yet it was promoted as being the BIGGEST, BADDEST, MOST IMPORTANTEST course in the entire universe for EVERY Scientologist to do. It was mandatory….and now it’s gone.
Soon the space age machines in the SP building will be in the Scientology museum as well….sitting next to the bust of LRH….which I’m surprised hasn’t been outlawed by the cherch by this time.
If Miscarriage replaced LRHs bust with his own, I seriously doubt that anyone in the cherch would even notice since anyone who actually knew LRH is gone by now.
True. At the time (early 90s I believe), KTL/LOC were hyped up. Cures whatever ails ya. I remember being told that it was a pre-requisite for Super Power (which was going to be staff-only).
I think KTL/LOC lasted about 5 years (max), before being relegated to the dust pile. But back in the early 90s there were a lot more prospects to reg. Not so today. I’ll give Super Power 2-3 more years, which is generous.
What is worse about Super Power is the 30 year long Super Hype. THIS is the key to PLANETARY CLEARING. And in the end its just a big, fat turd.
With all the bad news on the internet it’s a wonder they get anyone new walking in the door. And if they do all this relentless sucking of cash for a building must make a noobs wonder WTF as they look around and see that there’s no need for such.
It was bad enough 25 years ago trying to bring someone new in. You had to shield them from the ravenous regs trying to sell them services and the desperate staff trying to recruit them. That was bad enough, but these days it’s got to be much harder to cultivate a new cultie. Yeah, fart videos will do the trick! lol, not.
Seriously FART? For an Italian looking on a dictionary this is what comes
“Fart is a word in the English language most commonly used in reference to flatulence. The word fart is often considered unsuitable in formal situations as it may be considered vulgar or offensive. Fart can be used as a noun or a verb.[1] The immediate roots are in the Middle English words ferten, feortan and farten, kin of the Old High German word ferzan. Cognates are found in old Norse, Slavic and also Greek and Sanskrit.”
WTF? Did Dave name this way something? Please confirm..
FART is Mike’s acronym for the display screens showing Scientology promo films that have taken the place of a human-manned Div 6. It stands for Fully Automated Robotic Televisions. The screens were DM’s idea, in his quest to create a “flubless” Div 6 that wouldn’t drive away potential fresh meat. This whole discussion shows you how well that’s worked.
Dave’s ‘high tech’ ace in the hole for adopting the low cost IDLE ‘christian science reading room’ business model.
Dear Stat Push, So true.
The Div 6 to 4 stat takes a lot of work for most newbie followers. Some do waltz in the front door with money expendable cash to just leap right into 100 hours of auditing and LIfe Repair and do STCC on the side and Purif and then get moving on the Grades, but those more affluent newbies are fewer and fewer, and if we had access to the HGB stats, we could see just how many of these walk ins with money coming out of their ears they have, probably few dupes of that class at present in this current internet age and the current media caught up with Scientology and Hubbard’s history at this moment in time.
In fact a big IF, well IF Scientology management were operational, the Eval Corps (long dead for a decade or more I’ve heard) would either do a big 40 year long eval on GI (gross income).
They’d know of the different income types of newbies, and the amount of services, exactly what services, exactly HOW many intensives, the various “classes” of newbies are financially ABLE to pay when they first walk in the door.
This is something that over and over and over was done in evals, and the info is there, and were I at the Int Base, I’d waltz over to the non-existent Eval Corps, which is a sub section, or was a sub section of Exec Strata, and ask Claire Lochner who was a long time evaluator, or I’d go visit a couple of the other long term evaluable people still there to find out where the files are on all the past “Int GI Evals” of all types, and go through all the info.
The stats on the INCOMM computer system could all be looked at, and the breakdowns of what services were sold in what eras of the movement, and how many people took how long to “move from Div 5 to Div 4 services” as opposed to how many who first walked in were ready from the getgo because they had the expendable money to leap right into major services and Life Repair and Purif and then Grades auditing while doing a few token Div 6 courses parttime as they got their auditing since they had the money to afford the auditing right away.
OR, people who had money would just skip the whole org and go to a Class 8 Field Auditor, and because the more affluence citizens in society CAN afford to fork over full fees intensives to Class 8 Field Auditors back in Scientology history, and those Class 8 Field Auditors DID DO THE best intro Life Repairs and so forth, the whole 1968 Class 8 course made a boatload of Class 8s who were that early 1970s backbone of EDs and top execs in orgs and missions and Field Auditors too, and those confident and highest trained and “auditor” trained Scientologists of the early 1970s are who MADE more Scientologists, confidently, back in those days when lots of hopeful young people were in that whole counterculture era of try anything and lots of exuberance, etc, etc.
Today’s just a whole horrible scene for anyone who thinks Scientology holds something of value for them.
I really would like to see the Scientology stats and files and see what kind of people are slipping newly into Scientology.
The Class 8 Field Auditors are gone.
There are NO EDs and Senior C/Ses of these Ideal Orgs that are anywhere like the old 1968-70 era Class 8s and Class 6s of those early 1970s era around today.
This Golden Age of insensitive robotic auditors and case supervisors is like a bad sci fi movie.
Well maybe Hubbard’s sci fi genes can’t be stopped from oozing into today’s reality, and Scientology is ever more this heartless robotic sci fi scary show.
Chuck perhaps you recall this better than I do, but I think part of the claimed expansion surely must be an alteration of New Names to Central Files = NNCF.
With all the front groups like those under the scientology division on their Organizing chart of ABLE and SOCO, such as Narconon, CCHR, Youth for human rights, etc., I wonder if the names of such are included as NNCF or at the very least called scientologist per the definition which states something like ‘a person who uses and part of scientology to improve their live and the lives of others around them’.
Using that definition, the COS and of course DM would claim thousands of new scientologist =expansion.
An example, just one of many possible ones, could be an African school principal who has been sold on the ‘scientology teck of using a dictionary to aid in study. He/she then suggests to all his teachers to get dictionaries into use in the classrooms and VOILA, CoS hearing of this claims >9,000 New Scientologists because the students and teachers are now occasionally using a dictionary ‘of which use has now been claimed solely a scientology tech’. I have no evidence one way or another as to whether this is done, but it certainly is a possibility based on their Media Guide claim of some 203,000 active volunteer ministers, Ad nauseum .
Thus 47X expansion..barf. = ..false claims supporting a falsely promoted false statistic.
scientology is looking for a needle of truth in a straight up and vertical haystack reclaimed from the barn floor. Mostly crap, and it will be found and hardly worth the stench and possible mental illness which can be experienced the deeper one digs.
OMG scientology is expanding sooooooooo much. LOL. Is that what is called provable bullshit?
People who are actually ACTIVE Scientologists … that means that they have been on a major service (not an intro booklet or extension course) in the past year … my guess is 14,000 or even less, maybe even 10,000 *anyone who goes a year without a major service, but still attends some events or an extension course, is under the radar, they are no longer a Scientologist, but for varied reasons have chosen not to obviously leave the CoS.
Who can afford to buy major services after more than a decade of relentless pressure to buy “status” in the Idle Borgs or IAS. Not many.
Anyone get local mags from any of these Idle Orgs listing their major service completions?
Dear Joe,
I bet you are right.
I so wish we would have a middle management defector, one of the old old timer HGB middle managers Programs Chiefs for one of the Continents who knows the decades long stats’ trends, to come out and tell us the gory details!
I’ll bet you are absolutely right, and the stats, the Div 6 to 4 stats, all the major Div 4 stats, would tell the horrible empty Christian Science Reading Room motif of the Ideal Orgs is coming true.
I’ve thought Hubbard’s choice of Scientology, which gets mistook for somehow being like Christian Science, that with the infamously empty street side Christian Science Reading Rooms that I’ve noticed in my life, that today’s Scientology fits right in even if the connection is mistaken.
The empty rooms along the street in Clearwater with the glistening front group offices today, wow, just gloriously empty rooms that make me think of the empty Christian Science Reading Room streetside window motif!
And then there is ASI on Hollywood Boulevard: L. Ron Hubbard streetside window motif.
Honestly this comes as no surprise; the numbers CoS has been flouting for years (decades) have always been suspect. Does anyone know how many ‘mericans identified themselves as CoS in the 2010 census?
Oops…answered my own question. I didn’t realize that religious affiliation is not on the census….
Well, Heber did say to Mike Wallace of 60 Minutes, that they had 8 million members…..from 1952. Wallace said, “So, if someone just buys a dianetics book and never does anything else, you consider them Scientologists? Heber replied, “Yes. Because it’s that powerful (the tech).
Hubbard also said something to the effect that they have to show that they are constantly growing. Always getting bigger and bigger. To do that, they just throw out ridiculous numbers such as, “We’ve grown more in the last 5 years than in the last 5 decades.” Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha! Sorry! I just couldn’t hold it in. So, cult members, how’s that workin’ out for ya?
Interesting numbers. I wonder how many Under the Radars who read this will decide to drift further away from the RCOS…
At this rate a “World with war, without crime and without insanity” is just around the corner. I thank MYSELF every day that my own personal ethics stay in at all times so not to get in the way of any true religion’s expansion (i.e. the Church of Scientology?). I live in a fairly small town of about 41,000 people compared to nearby New York City that had a reported population of 14,000,000 (in 1978) the U. S. Government now reports is 9,000,000 (in 2015). It seems as though government and Scientology stat reporting have something in common. One says there are more than their are and the other says there are less than they are. Great way to keep the public in the know, in my opinion. 🙂
Hey Lawrence, New York City never had a “reported” population of 14,000,000, so I don’t get your point.
HGC10: When I was working for the GO in 1978 I was in an elevator in the Empire State Building on my way up to the 82nd floor to the place where I worked when I was not working for the church. There was a taped message that played in the elevator as you went up and it said “New York City, where 14 million people work and play”. So I assume that if this message is safe to play to 150,000 tourists to the building a year then it must be true because why say that it its not. Now the population of New York is estimated at approximately 9 million and I can’t understand where all those people went. If the elevator report is true. I thought New York was getting bigger not smaller. I have not been to the Empire State Building in many years and I don’t know if that message still plays but it sounds as clear today in my mind as it did the day I first heard it. I even remember the temperature in the elevator, the chrome trim, olive walls, linoleum floor. 🙂
Lawrence, I think you’re pulling my leg, and if so, then bravo. If not, then you should consider what the Empire State Building was claiming when they said 14 million people “work and play” in New York City. Perhaps they were referring to the population plus the commuter workforce plus all visitors in the course of a year. In any case, it’s dead simple to cross-reference against the US census figure, which in 1980 was about 7 million, down more than 10% from 1970. The population has since rebounded and then some, clocking in at an 8.5 million estimate for 2014. Did you really think that the US census bureau miscounted NYC by so much?
Plus. I just double checked your question. The population of New York STATE in 1978 was 17,680,000 people. So I apologize that is where I must have drawn that datum from. New York City is about 9,000,000 people and New York State is a little more. Thanks for pointing that out! 🙂
To put this in perspective the capacity of Wembley Stadium at the time of the Live Aid concert was 82,000.
And here is Queen performing Under Pressure during Live Aid..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJCTgtDU-74
Embarassing! Lovely math, Mike.
It’s more than probable that even that is a bit over the CORE members, these are less than those who pay and do something 🙂
Added numbers come from exxagerrations of the cult pope; from those who are half convinces that anything but few “services” are useful!