One of our readers asked Chat GPT (or perhaps another AI tool) for a prediction on the future of scientology and he forwarded it to me.
This is a pretty good indicator of the status of scientology in the world — a far different picture than is presented in their press releases and events touting “unprecedented expansion” and other hype that is not backed up by anything outside their words and staged propaganda videos.
Predicting the future of the Church of Scientology involves examining various factors, including its historical membership trends, current dynamics, and broader societal influences. Here’s an analysis and projection based on available data and trends:
Historical and Current Membership Trends
Historical Membership Trends:
- Peak Membership: Scientology saw its peak membership in the 1970s and 1980s. During this period, the church expanded rapidly, particularly in the United States and Western Europe.
- 1990s to Early 2000s: Membership numbers began to plateau and then decline. Various sources suggest that the church’s membership peaked at around 100,000 to 200,000 during its height.
Current Membership Trends:
- Current Estimates: Reliable current membership figures are hard to come by due to the church’s secretive nature. Independent estimates suggest global membership might be around 20,000 to 50,000. Some reports indicate that the numbers could be even lower.
- Public Perception and Criticism: Increased public scrutiny, high-profile defections, and critical media coverage have likely contributed to declining membership numbers. The popularity of exposés and documentaries like “Going Clear” has also impacted public perception.
Future Projections
Membership Size:
- Continued Decline: If current trends continue, the Church of Scientology is likely to see a further decline in membership. Factors contributing to this include ongoing negative media coverage, legal challenges, and the rise of the internet, which makes information about the church’s practices more accessible.
- Stabilization Efforts: The church may attempt to stabilize its membership through aggressive recruitment, focusing on regions with less negative exposure, and bolstering retention efforts among existing members.
Donors to the International Association of Scientologists (IAS):
- High-Value Donors: The number of high-value donors, those who give millions of dollars, is likely to decline if the overall membership decreases. Additionally, high-profile defections of wealthy members and public criticism could dissuade potential new high-value donors.
- Fundraising Strategies: The church might double down on its remaining wealthy members, using intense personal appeals and promises of elevated status within the organization to secure large donations.
Regional Membership Analysis
North America:
- Current Status: The United States remains the largest base, but membership has significantly declined from its peak.
- Projection: Continued decline due to high public awareness and negative media.
Europe:
- Current Status: Significant declines in countries like the UK and Germany, where the church faces legal and social challenges.
- Projection: Similar to North America, a continued decline is expected.
Asia:
- Current Status: Limited presence compared to Western countries. Some growth in countries like Taiwan.
- Projection: Potential for slight growth in regions with less negative exposure, but overall numbers likely to remain small.
Africa:
- Current Status: Minimal presence.
- Projection: Limited growth potential due to lack of infrastructure and historical presence.
South America:
- Current Status: Small but potentially growing membership in countries like Argentina and Brazil.
- Projection: Possible slight growth due to less public scrutiny compared to North America and Europe.
Oceania:
- Current Status: Moderate presence in Australia.
- Projection: Likely to follow the declining trend seen in other Western countries.
Conclusion
Overall, the Church of Scientology is likely to experience continued membership decline across most regions, with some potential for slight growth in less scrutinized areas. The number of high-value donors is expected to decrease, though the church may intensify efforts to secure large donations from its remaining wealthy members. Public perception and legal challenges will continue to play significant roles in shaping the church’s future. -End-
It will get to the point where people born into cO$ will be in the only ones in the Sea Org (if it’s not already now).
The policy changes needed to prevent co$ from dying would require a special message from LRH from beyond the grave to David Miscavage. The protections made to protect his power and control ultimately will be the undoing.
I would agree that new high profile membership will continue to fall. I would mention that the numbers may swing upward because of the way they are treated. They’re little gods who can get anything they want. It’s a easy selling point Tom Cruise can use.
Actually, Hubbard had policy that was changed by DM. Hubbard allowed Sea Org members to have children. Miscavige changed that. For these past 38 years, Sea Org members could have been having children and, given the young age at which SO members marry, grandhildren, born right into the Sea Org. Think how many more “born in” Sea Org members there would be had Miscavige not forbidden his members from having children.
Now, I’m NOT implying that children and babies were well cared for back when they were allowed to be conceived and born! The system of caring for babies and small children was beyond awful, so I’m not defending THAT.
I’m merely pointing out that allowing Sea Org members to marry but procreate was – is – of itself, non survival to the Sea Org.
TaKE the example of the Roman Catholic Church a thousand years ago. The powers that be forbid priests and nuns to marry and have children but boy did they ever make the point that everybody else should.
“Be fruitful and multiply” was drummed IN. To marry and have LOTS of children was Godly, its what GOD wanted everyone except priests and nuns to do.
Listen, I’m not saying that this was RIGHT.
I’m just pointing out that the powers that be who ran the RC church back then put all their weight behind the maxim to be fruitful and multiply, because it made SENSE for the survival of the organization.
Whereas, forbidding Sea Org members from having children, coupling and uncoupling them, (however legally via marriage and divorce and however expedient these would be any given time) like barnyard animals, and then encouraging abortion when a pregnancy occurs are policies totally anathema to the survival of the Sea Org as an organization. That’s my only point.
‘They’ are well-represented among comnenters here.
I agree with the diagnosis, Scientology is far past its peak, and into decline.
As a real-estate empire though, all of those massive extortions of fees in the past gave it a massive capital base. Membership may fall, but they now own downtown Clearwater in Florida and, it seems, East Grinstead in England.
Here in Tokyo, they have a new building. Really, nobody is aware of them, and the first exercise doesn’t work on people with expressionless eyes (except for tears), so it is hard to see how they can gain converts.
I am clearly to not popular with the many Scio or Hubbard loyalists posting here, but the site is not good as far as posting and list system, when they are disagreeing, I never see it, except perhaps once in passing.
From that, never after, just vanishes.
If they are disagreeing with something you wrote you get a email when they reply to your comment informing you that somebody has responded.
“I am clearly to not popular with the many Scio or Hubbard loyalists posting here…” I seem to recall that, maybe, one or two sheepbots raise their heads above the parapets once or twice a month and fairly swiftly slink off once they don’t get the responses they expect.
Just about everyone who posts here is not popular with $camologists.
Look
I am not having your experience, on this blog, I feel opinions are welcome. I think that Scientology is a cult, Hubbard created a lot of bad things, alongside good tech, like ARC, and some stuff, up until OT sadly most things were taken to extremes, by Miscavige. Logically, Miscavige is an SP. Since scio is a Cult, they should pay taxes, and the abuse most stop. Kind regards Kim
Scientologists dare not delve into AI. It will let the genie out of the bottle. There’s no stopping the truth about the toxic cult.
Great article, Mike. Seeing that drain gave me a much needed laugh.
Bandying some numbers around here:
Recently the cult claimed that 10K are on OTVII. I doubt if but lets say its true. So if there are in fact 20K actual active Scientologists that would mean that half of them are on OTVII. the other half would comprise Sea Org members – say about 5K of them – and then the rest, the remaining 5K would be…what? Not new people; not raw public in Div 6, certainly. So who are they, what are they? No org is turning out any auditors to speak of. They don’t seem to be turning out many lower bridge Grades Preclears. So who would these 5000 be? If I had real money, which I don’t, I would wager a handsome amount that a substantial portion of the 5000 are in fact UTRs doing little courses just so they don’t get targeted – little courses designed to attract new raw public (notably missing) like “How To Brush Your Teeth So That You Win In Life” – little mini courses. Actually, if I were to wager for real I would bet that the number of honestly active for real Scientologist was 17 – 18,000.
As a note, their claim has never been that there are 10k currently on SoloNOTs. Its always been “on or through” — so they continue to count everyone who started since the 80’s when it came out…
Duly noted, thanks, Mike. But then this could mean that they’re including OTVIIs who’ve been declared/disconnected from as well. Like Newcomer and Cindy and heaven knows how many others.! Not to mention those were were “on or through” when they, ahem, “dropped their bodies” like Kirstie Alley, Kelly Preston and Lisa Marie Presley.
Mike, a quick question please: So when the church is counting the number of people “on or through OT VII” do they count the same person twice cuz this person did OT VII the first time, completed it and then was re-called to do it again when Davey ordered all to get back on the level to re-do OT VII?
Your guess is as good as mine on this one Cindy. It would not surprise me…
Their core membership is baby boomers in for life – but that generation is dwindling at an increasing rate. Their children aren’t nearly as dedicated if carrying on at all, and there are almost no new recruits.
They’re going the way of the Shakers and the Jesus Freaks, almost inevitably. I think it’s just a question of how long – and especially how tenaciously – they hang on.
Maybe they’ll end up called the ‘real estate church (or cult)’, known for its massive empty buildings hardly any busier than a little Christian Science Reading Room (another rapidly vanishing harbinger).
Buuhhaaa, I can’t stop to laugh!
That is a great future
I like how all of the membership sizes are decreasing to the point where AI knows it.
That’s the cool, factually accumulated synthetic consciousness speaking about the cult’s future. Others express the status quo quite emphatically as in the 16 Most Terrifying Cults:
No.16 “Scientology. It’s part cult, part MLM scam. They are flat-out criminals, who require the one thing common to cults: shunning of family members who don’t toe the line, or who reject the ‘faith.’ We’re talking about ripping families apart. It’s flat-out evil. And when it comes to dealing with people who question their practices, they use lawyers and private investigators to harass and intimidate people who speak out. They were so vicious in their harassment of IRS agents that were pursuing a case against their tax-exempt status, that the IRS basically gave up.”
https://www.ebaumsworld.com/pictures/the-16-most-terrifying-cults-from-around-the-world/87530785/
Public opinion has turned against the organization. And as the ChurchofScientology-cult is not likely to change its ways, it is digging its own grave. Bravo!
Except for Scientology and offshoots, and Hare Krishnas, I only really know of Japanese or Japanese-origin cults.
Aum’s remnant Aleph is still going, but no public presence like the days when they were doing public dances, selling tapes of ambient music, and running nerve-gas attacks.
Number 1 is Soka Gakkai, they claim ten million in Japan alone, and it seems true, they have a political party which reflects that number. Also many overseas. At least if you aren’t ‘in’, members will try to recruit, but are also capable of sane conversation if not interested. They pretend to be Buddhist.
2. Shin Nyo En, garden of the new nymphs
Unfortunately got a little tamgled in it, it has Scientology-adjacent features, the recruiter seems a friend, but just wants to pass personal info. to the next-level person, who is supposed to surprise you by knowing many of your secrets, I saw through the game and cut any association just before that point.
They also pretend to be Buddhist.
They, too, are far bigger than Scn., at least two million.
3. Mahikari, or pure light
Don’t know how big they are, but they make no pretense of Buddhism. They have such teachings as blessing rocks and soft toys one may carry. My only contact with them was, before I knew they existed, seeing many foreign people on the trains to the same destination, but Mahikari is popular. After alighting from the train, it was clear that a cult gathering was in progress. All the radiant pod-people faces.
The cheap business hotel I’d planned to stay in had been knocked down, everywhere was full. Finally found a double-room vacancy, the staff assumed I must be one of the pod-people, but I asked them why the place was so crowded, one said ‘Mahikari, so-called festival’, and pronouncing ‘mahikari’ like a curse. Turns out that the town is host to the Mahikari world centre. Ugly building on the other side of the railway tracks. Bad timing on my part, it was their annual festival.