Another inadvertant admission from inside the bubble.
They are totally enthusiastic about the fact they got “Highest Ever” for a WUS ribbon cutting. Really? All SO members in LA and all staff and public that could be rounded up in the LA area (and no doubt from San Diego and Santa Barbara and some were even shipped in from the Bay Area and Phoenix and anywhere else)? After all, they did not want to disappoint the Pope. Is there anywhere else in WUS that would expect to have higher turnout than LA? Certainly not Las Vegas. Or Phoenix. Or the Bay Area. Or Portland. Or Denver. Or Seattle. Or Dallas…
And the figure they are promoting is 5826. Wow, not a good show at all (judging from the “headcount” announced after the Sooper Powerz ribbon cutting, this means there were actually less than 2000 in attendance).
If, as they are wont to say, LA has the greatest concentration of Scientologists on earth, and there are only 6000 who show up in LA (including ALL SO members from PAC as well as the HGB and BPI and ASI and Mad Hatter and KCET and the “International Dissem Center” and the Int Landlord Office) then how does that add up to more than 10 million worldwide?
If as they say, best case scenario, 6000 showed up, and that was a 50% turnout, it means there are 12,000 Scientologists in LA (again, VERY generous as the turnout of LA SO and Class V staff was close to 100% — they had NO choice). The LA area is 4 SO Orgs (AOLA, ASHO D & F, CC Int) and 6 Class V Orgs (LA D &F, Pasadena, Orange County, Valley, Ingelwood — 5 of them “ideal”). So, give them generously 1500 people per org which would be 15,000 Scientologists in LA. There are 150 orgs, so that works out to be 225,000 Scientologists in the world. Based on their best case scenario figures and their over-the-top hype. Of course, there are dozens of orgs that could not round up 1500 people on pain of death. They get about 40 people to their events. There are some orgs that are so small they are excited if they have 20 people show up for an event.
So, once again, the bold announcement of “highest ever” when actually analyzed for what it means, is just further proof of the real state of affairs inside the bubble. This is a limp scene, no straight up and vertical anywhere in sight.
About the only thing that still appears to be undaunted, defiant and resolute within the bubble is the insane, unwarranted enthusiasm and hype from the clubbed seals.
They truly make Pangloss look like an eternal pessimist
Date: Sat, 8 Mar 2014
From: Claire Taylor <taylor8008@taybros.com>
Subject: Get your ice cream and commends Monday!To the LA Field:
YOU ROCK!!!!!
Attendance today: 5826! Highest Ever for any WUS Grand Opening!
Let’s fill up the events at AO and ASHO tomorrow then party Monday night at the Pac OTC Meeting!
6 PM LA Org Field Activities!
Ice Cream and Commends for all!
PS: Claire — what happened to the Hollywood Test Center???
Ice cream WOW!
After a hefty donation of course
Don’t want you to get the idea that we’re not generous.
How do you know they didn’t already hire extras for this latest event? After all, it was in Hollywood.
Mike, if you keep exposing the false event head count numbers they’re going to have to start hiring extras to fill seats in the auditorium.
Even when lying is completely unnecessary, it is in the Scientology culture to lie for “PR” reasons, it is called giving an ‘acceptable truth” or “white lie” FOR THE GREATEST GOOD !
Amen sister. Hallelujah!
they have the lying business down pat. In WTH it says, “do not tell “harmful” lies.” And what could be harmful about padding some stats? In fact, it is helpful to DM to pad the stats cuz it keeps the whales thinking that we are expanding and that it is all because of DM’s good leadership. So if it helps the church, the lie is told. All for the church.
Reminds me of an old Christian song – with God on our side.
Mike,
In LA if it was such a “momentous” “straight up and vertical” with the Dope of Scientology event then you’d expect at least 20 grand if you counted their CF’s and Addresso’s T&P
Yet they got less than a lousy 6 which is less than the number of Scientologists who showed up for “Prayer Day” in ’76.
I’d say that was a down stat.
Me too Robin. Like I said, it’s all very limp, nothing resembling straight up and vertical….
And by the way, considerably less than the 93 IAS Event held at the LA Sports Arena. Definitely downstat from that, in spite of the last 5 years expansion greater than the combined 50 years previously.
Looks like Davey could use a little Viagra.
Mike,
I think that they may be right to the extent that there has been a greater expansion of hot air and other gasses than in the last 50 years combined 😉
For fart’s sake!
Yeah, but look at dem ribbons!
I can almost hear the conversation between those who had to report uplines: “Shit – there were only a few hundred attendees. We can’t tell COB that”. “I know – but lets add in all the staff confirms who were probably late, and passers by and the police and…” “Yeah! Let’s say there were over 5000 there!” “Great idea! Let’s say 5826 – it sounds kinda specific like some one counted or something!” “Yeah! Upstat or what” [Cue high-fives] “Where’s the ice cream?”
They have 12,000 followers on You Tube and Twitter, so their worldwide membership is probably about that number, plus the Sea Org.
How much do followers cost? Do they come in a package deal?
Sadly for Dave, no.
Bingo, jgg!
What event are they talking about. I saw Tory’s video. That was a few hundred people at best.
Richard,
How’d I know you’d be the first to respond…?
And great tidbit re Florida!
Let the wenches dawdle in such dress
As they are used to wear, and let the boys
Bring flowers in last month’s newspapers.
Let be be finale of seem.
The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream.
Anybody? Anybody?
Good one, War Horse! I love Wallace Stevens. There’s an interesting Florida connection here, too, as noted by poets.org:
“This poem is apparently “set” in Key West, a place that inspired much of Stevens’s work, and where it was a tradition to have ice cream at funerals.”
After a steady diet of bile, I imagine some ice cream would be gazed upon as manna from heaven.
Thank you for answering that. I hate having MU’s. 😉
No but seriously. Thanks.
No matter how hard miscavige tries to position himself as the great leader of a new age religion uniting science with spirit, he just comes off as petty tyrant running a 2 bit cult. A small handful of people are impressed with his MEST, but the average response from the man in the street when they hear the word “scientology” is a cringe. The most common associative word is “cult,” or “creepy cult.”
A couple of dozen people in a huge building that could hold several hundred all sitting around congratulating each other on the new marble floors which are destined to clear the planet.
Yup. A 2 bit thug, running a 2 bit creepy cult.
They will save money by giving ice cream to just a handful of whales. Black Heart has planned it this way so he doesn’t have to spend his money on something valuable/useful for his parishioners, heaven forbids.
The “church” is dead. Even if external forces reversed course and tried to prop it up it will still collapse slo-mo. And that slow only because of the huge $ reserves available to spend in order to keep the corpse animated in the picture window. Al la “Weekend at Davy’s”
It’s good to show how, even taking the cult’s inflated numbers as literally true that they don’t get anything like the numbers they’re claiming. But 225,000 is probably even bigger than the largest number of people actually “on lines” (most of whom were probably on the most elementary of services) in the height of the rapid growth in the 1970s.
If you look at a more reasonable estimate of 1,200 to 1,500 (based on the square footage of the street and a reasonable assumption of the number of square foot per person), you get a pretty horrific result: assume 1,000 staff forced to be there, and then you get a total of 200 to 500 public actually showing up, despite a six week call-in campaign to get them confirmed.
That, in the home of what we’ve long assumed was the highest concentration of Scientologists in the world. It makes me wonder (and I’d love your thoughts on this, Mike) whether, as time goes on, the hard core “true believers” are all migrating to Clearwater while the tenor of the LA crowd is more of cynical “under the radars” who are just going through the motions to avoid disconnection and/or business disruption.
If that’s true, then it makes me wonder whether at some point, the entire LA public (with the exception of a few of the Hollywood types) will just quit en masse since disconnection is becoming less effective. You can just see the conversation: someone mutters under their breath that “I don’t believe this crap any more.” Someone else overhears and replies, “I haven’t believed this bullshit for years.” Then they all start to find out that nobody believes in Scientology and they all leave more or less at once. LA thus looks like what’s happening in South Africa, with a single sudden rapid implosion marking the end game.
+1
John — I dont think there is any migration TO Clearwater. I think there is migration AWAY from Clearwater. Less and less people live in the local community — mostly they depart because they want to get out of easy driving range of the vultures.
And I don’t think there will be any mass exodus. More and more will simply stop showing up to events. There are a lot of techniques that have now been perfected by people to avoid event attendance. I think an increasing percentage of people take the smart way “Oh yes, put me on your list of confirmeds, I will definitely be there” and they just don’t show up. The “confirmeds” for events are becoming more and more bs.
Miscavige loves to fight wars of attrition in the courts.
He is losing the war of attrition for his survival and the survival of the church. It is eroding away more and more as each day passes and there is plenty of evidence of that.
Nice to see you here again. I always enjoy your cogent comments.
And BTW, I completely agree with you about the 225,000 — I too think that this is more than there ever have been active Scientologists, and today my guess is around 25,000 internationally.
Mike,
I never really looked at it that way but it’s true. The cob uses the war of attrition against people in the legal arena but those who live by the sword die by it apparently, because he is losing the war of attrition in the battle of people and truth. So the little cob, may win a battle here and there but he is losing the main war of attrition. It will be a slow and painful loss for him up until he has the final cognition of how he had the most EPIC FAIL in a long time on planet Earth.
Anyone wanna write a dirge for Dave?
Yea, Mike. Before i was out but obviously suffering some bad effects from the church’s exploits, I would complain that the Church of Scientology is the only religion I know that eats its young.
Mike, thanks for your thoughts. I agree with the 25,000 total membership number as of about mid 2013, but I think things are going to take a rather rapid leg down in the wake of Golden Age of Tech 2 and Super Power. I think it has looked like about 8% to 10% decline in a “normal” year for the last few years, with some acceleration in the wake of the Debbie Cook memo in early 2012.
We could exit 2014 with a number closer to 21,000 — a decline of about 15% in just 18 months. That’s worse than it looks when you account for the number of staff, which appears to be about 5,000 of the 21,000. In other words, if total membership is 21,000 at the end of the year, then public will have dropped by 25% in just 18 months.
It is still way too early to tell for sure what is happening this year, though. There are a couple wild cards like membership in Russia, staff levels at Flag and a few other things which could significantly affect numbers. Those won’t affect economics since there aren’t many big donors in the developing economies where the corporate church is having success getting new bodies in.
The income stats are probably deteriorating faster than the membership number at this point. I’m hearing that there have been months recently with fewer than 100 paying customers on the Freewinds, for instance. And every LA-based dentist or chiropractor that retires or blows is a much bigger hit on the income lines than a Russian who stops showing up for Objectives in St. Petersburg.
Agreed 100% JPC. I think your estimates are on the money (so to speak).
LRH to DM: Thanks for making it go wrong.
“Oh yes, put me on your list of confirmed, I will definitely be there”
Mike you saw right through me on this. I finally learned to just say I would be there and was looking forward to attending. It worked every time and I was able to get right off the phone.
On one occasion however, it was an IAS event and when I didn’t attend several days later I received a letter in the mail which contained a Knowledge Report on me for not attended. In the report the IAS representative (beggar) called me a liar. They actually used the word “liar”. I guess the IAS was correct but I just found it easier to say “yes” to every request to attend events.
KF — that’s funny about the KR. You should write one on them now for lying about everything that they have ever told anyone about anything to try and get money out of them. 🙂
Mike,
That kind of ‘broken promises’ from the public really calls for expanded, new sec check questions…
Greta
Have you ever moved from an approved church location without an MAA, C/S or reges written okay?
John P, so glad you’re OCD (. 😉 Your words) I enjoy reading you and your calculations and the fact that you like figuring these things out.
Tell me again, I forgot, your best estimate of when the domino effect hits and the church is irrelevant.
I’m suffering from the effects of disconnection. So, my game is counting the days. 🙂
Mary, the Church is already irrelevant in many respects, including the ability to recruit new members and the ability to make a positive difference in the world.
The issue most of us are fighting for is to limit how long they can continue to abuse those who remain trapped inside and how long they will be able to continue to harass those who seek to contain and repair the damage that this malignant organization does.
The people who have disconnected from you will eventually be freed. It is inevitable. But inevitable may, sadly, take a long time. Keep your courage up to get through every day without them and your heart ready to welcome them when they finally break free, even though it could be many years from now.
Thank you so much, John P, for your encouraging and beautiful words to me.
Hi John and thank you for your post. I would like to tell you that as a LA public who’s been around for a while, I am not hearing anything about the faithful making an exodus to Clearwater at all.
I know many devout followers and they are happily clicking along thinking everything is wonderful and fantastic.
Actually, many public here do not really like Florida or Clearwater in general. They complain about the weather there and that Clearwater is small and boring. People in So Cal are very spoiled about their weather and are big babies when it rains or gets too hot or cold. They only go to Florida because of Flag if they are above OTV and I hear lots of complaints about it when they “have to go.”
For those who live in Florida, this is not a diss.
You’re numbers are spot on, JPC.
Pepper, I know there are a lot of Kool-Aid drinkers in both LA and FL. I may be overestimating the number of cynical “under the radars” based on my contacts with a number of folks in LA, most of whom tend to be older first-generation folks who got in back when Hubbard was still alive and back when being in the group was fun.
I suspect that the younger second-generation and Hollywood types are the core “true believers.” There are, of course, true believers at all the orgs worldwide, but I would have to believe they are increasingly few in number. And there certainly are some older folks who continue to drink the Kool-Aid without ever questioning things.
In doing numbers research of this sort, one popular saying is “the plural of ‘anecdote’ is not ‘evidence.'” In other words, it’s really hard to go from conversations about the scene in a particular area to really good numbers. It is possible but it is hard. I try to be as careful as possible, so I always appreciate thoughts and feedback like yours.
JPC – I think you are on to something about the demographic of the “under the radars.” I also know older Scientologists who constantly reminisce about the good old days, when Scn “was fun” and noticed that they stay away from the orgs with a ten foot pole.
Most of the staff is younger, (second gens) and I’ve noticed that the people showing up for course are mostly approaching middle age. They’ve been around since the mid eighties to nineties. These are the KA drinkers mostly but of course, there are some from the seventies and back. Less and less of those over the years though.
I don’t see new, fresh 20-30 somethings coming in as new parishioners. Less than a handful in a year when I was last doing courses at the org. In fact, pretty much the only young people I’ve seen come in the orgs over the last 8-10 years are the children of Scn’s recruited for staff or SO.
The public sees this and is aware but they turn a blind eye to it. Public also sometimes engage in careful conversation about how the orgs are empty, then the justified thought sets in and it’s blamed on the psychs, or more realistically, the Internet.
I do appreciate your research into the topic of the CoS, I know it’s difficult to get correct numbers out of the cult. I’m with you on stopping the abuse of people trapped inside and that’s why I post, period.
It was 5826.
Why not, Ice cream for all.
Take a break from reality, ice cream will do it.
Can’t wait to get my Ben and Jerry’s after slaving away for the greedy cult. What a pay off!!
Get it before it melts Tony!
There is little difference between the cynical O’Brien of “1984” and the disingenuous Miscavige. If Miscavige states that 5800 people showed up and that this proves there are millions of members in the L.A. area, then the members had better see those millions when they look at the statistics. Just like O’Brien, Miscavige has studied each member to learn his/her greatest fear, and he uses that fear to insure that when he states “2 + 2 = 5,” the members say “yes, sir.”
Hey Dave, Did you decide to sandbag the Test Center for your May 9th Event? You shot your wad in 7 minutes in Clearwater, 3 minutes in PAC, and prematurely for the Test Center. What a sticky mess you have created for yourself, Dave.
OMG! GAG! LOL!
WTF! etc.
Annabelle,
I am gagging with you in stereo !
Quadra phonic!
MJ,
LOL !
🙂 Steph
Dave use to go on for hours but now it’s clear he has cut his ability to reach way down-Seven minutes as you noted at the Super Power event to less than half that this past Saturday and no Maiden Voyage at all last summer . Where does he go from here? Can we expect only an appearance at open window next with a quick wave of a hand and no verbal communication at all as his ability to reach diminishes even further?
You got that right K Francis! And maybe next it will be a Popemobile where he has a bullet proof bubble where he stands and gives the Queen of England wave to the adoring crowds lining the street for a glimpse of him as he rides by in his bullet proof Popemobile.
Don’t you mean pimp mobile?
Yes I can see it Cindy. His ten car motorcade driving along a parade route with a total of 17 cheering still-ins (staff) lining the streets and Dave wearing dark sunglasses and a frown.
Dave, your suffering will be legendary even in hell.
Maybe Davey has omitted watching the DVD about ENRON. They ALWAYS came up with yet another idea to scam the investors and the public until the crash. The bosses were all smart
and sold their shares BEFORE the crash.
Greta
They’re going to “party” Monday night at the Pac OTC meeting? Sounds …. uhm …. exciting ….. well, not really … just kidding. *one can’t seriously think there are 200 public actually on a service at the Pasadena or Inglewood orgs … do I hear 100? …50?
Yeah, and who parties on a Monday? Lame.
Must be “any party better than none”!
Heck, they really don’t have much to celebrate…
Greta
JP, as someone who goes by the Pasadena Idle Morgue quite often, I can say with certainty that it’s dying quickly. The turnover in staff is just unbelievable. Not even sure the staff are making $25 a week.
Well as everyone will have flown to Clearwater to set up for the March 13th Event, the test center went away.
At least the “Event” will be full as there are enough staff in the Clearwater area (incl the SP staff) to fill the REH…….wonder who they will be able to Reg?
Claire – send me a free ice cream coupon and I’ll pick mine up at Ben & Jerry’s.
Some will see the light when they look up and see the sky as the timbers fom the burning roof crash around them.
OMG ICe Cream and commends. Reminds me of standing in muster one day and the capt AOLA promised that if we got highest ever that week we would get a slice of pizza. How frigging lame can you get. I looked around the room and the younger staff were so excited. Given I had left a six figure income to be in that poverty induced environment I was not impressed. I remember thinking that I would sneak out and buy my own frigging whole pizza upstat or not.
When we used to do events there back in 2001/2 the entire street was filled and every parking lot. I think the numbers in the late nineties and early 2000 were 10,000 plus.
Then there is the comment “Highest ever for any WUS Grand Opening. This is a REOPENING. Once again there is a lie in the stats. I bet they counted all the police, and passers by on Hollywood blvd to pad the stats too.
Starzstuff, it sure was a comment on the squashed havingness of staff, wasn’t it? What does that say for the food if a slice of pizza enthuses staff. Oh dear….
At Gold we used to get enticed with a donut if we wrote our quota of Org Gold Officer letters for the week. Every staff member had an org they would write to about Gold products, their usage, etc. We loved that and it definitely got more letters out. A sorry statement of staff havingness again but true. Once a week, a donut. Whoo-hoo.
But of course, as he will do, the little DM guy saw that people got a little enjoyment out of a donut and cancelled that particular reward. He told us that we should be writing the letters out of duty, not because we get offered a donut. I guess working 24/7 wasn’t enough “duty,” we also had to squeeze those letters in too in the 25th hour.
How this small action gets his attention and he even orders “No more donuts!!” when he has to do Everything Else for All the Incompetents Who Screw Him Over blows my mind. He is such as awesome multi-tasker…LOL….
I got so overrun with eating pizzas at the weekly Tech hierarchy meetings at AOLA in 1989 I have not bought one since!
Greta
Hah! Gato Rojo, may be before your time but it used to be there were chocolate chip cookies and ice cream every Saturday night. When I first got to Gold, we were on round-the-clock literally no sleep hard time construction. Mudding, taping, laying concrete block walls, installing AC ducts and electrical. None of your wimpy 3 hour naps here and there either. So after about three days of that Saturday rolled around and someone had the brilliant idea of giving the RPFers left over ice cream from the Saturday feast for Mid Rats (Midnight rations). Understand, it was midnight but we were going right back to work after this. Half the crew literally fell asleep face down in their ice cream bowls while the other half laughed at the sight. Guess we had our reward! DM, thanks for the memories!
Dave’s just overflowing with kindness and generosity. What a guy.
Regarding Bruce’s comment about cookies and ice cream, a friend of mine who used to be at the Detroit org said that Ron would send beer and cheese for the new year’s party. A whole palette full.
My, how things have changed.
Dave knows best.
Wow! You are spot on with that Candide reference, Mike. Nice one!